EU at crossroads as it tackles difficult challenges

By Target Language Translation Services | Updated: 2022-01-26 11:00

This year, the European Union must tackle some of its most difficult challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and achieving strategic autonomy, if it wants to become a more assertive global player, according to experts.

While the pandemic continues to take its toll across the continent and ravage economies, global political changes have also created myriad problems for the EU in the past two years, and the situation will worsen if proper action is not taken by member nations, the experts said.

In a review, Joseph Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, defined 2021 as "a year of transitions".

"Geopolitical changes have intensified, with power politics repeatedly challenging the EU and our values. We must respond with all the determination we can muster," he said.

Borrell added that the pandemic has persisted longer than imagined a year ago, and the Omicron variant has required the introduction of significant restrictions and has threatened economic recovery.

By the end of last year, about 68 percent of the EU's population was fully vaccinated against COVID-19, but there is a need to "do more to reverse vaccination disparities and tackle growing imbalances and inequalities" across continents, Borrell said.

In addition to handling the pandemic, the EU has faced one crisis after another, he said. "But being in permanent crisis management mode has sometimes weakened its capacity to address transversal, longer-term issues" that should be at the center of its foreign policy. These include revitalizing multilateralism, handling migration in a balanced way, as well as the energy and climate crises and regulations for digital transition, he added.

Ding Chun, director of the Center for European Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the EU's economy, ravaged by the pandemic, saw signs of recovery in the middle of last year, as member countries took measures to tackle COVID-19, such as rolling out vaccination plans and easing restrictions on movement.

However, late last year, the highly contagious Omicron variant became the main strain of the virus in EU countries, forcing them to reintroduce restrictions and fueling new doubts over their economies, he said.

The EU Commission has forecast a rise of 4.3 percent for the bloc's real GDP this year, down from 5 percent last year. Moreover, EU countries also face months of surging energy prices. Inflation in the bloc has risen consecutively in recent months, reaching a record high of 5 percent in December, and many countries are running public debts well above 100 percent of GDP.

"These factors have led to serious pitfalls for the EU's economic recovery," Ding said.

In addition to the pandemic, the EU faces challenges and divisions over a series of crises. Member countries have different views on a number of issues, including the rule of law, response to climate change, and energy transformation.

For example, Poland's top court rejected the principle of primacy of EU law over national legislation in certain judicial matters. This ruling challenged the supremacy of EU law, which is considered a central pillar of European integration. The migrant crisis on the bloc's frontier with Belarus also frequently made headlines, raising the specter of a humanitarian emergency.

Externally, the United States has mended ties with the EU to some extent, but the abrupt withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan put EU security at risk again. France was also deeply offended when the US, the United Kingdom and Australia signed a trilateral security pact in September, with Australia pulling out of a submarine contract with France worth $66 billion.

Relations between the EU and the UK have also been fractious, ranging from the Northern Ireland Protocol to disputes over fishing rights.

Branislav Djordjevic, director of the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, the Serbian capital, said that apart from other problems, such as Brexit and the economic and migrant crisis, the pandemic has questioned the core basis of the EU－solidarity.

"Time will tell, but it is very likely that post-pandemic relations between the member states will become looser than ever," he said.

Djordjevic added that it is obvious that two important features of the EU－the enlargement policy and the organization's global influence－are stagnating. It is also clear that EU relations with Russia and China are complicated, while security dependence on the US is still high.

"Such a situation will force the EU to think about its strategic autonomy in a world that is becoming multipolar," he said.

Sven Biscop, director of the Europe in the World Program at the Egmont-Royal Institute for International Relations, a think tank in Brussels, said all global players－the US, China and Russia－as well as the EU－are struggling to return to normal after being hit hard by the pandemic. But as they all have the means to do so, the balance of power between them has basically not changed, he said.

"I would not say that the EU is declining, but it is true that its capacity to act on the global stage was limited already in the fields of diplomacy and defense due to a lack of centralized decision-making," he said.

The EU has taken many measures to tackle its problems. It has a 750 billion euro ($846.5 billion) fund for economic recovery. To strengthen its strategic autonomy and reduce reliance on NATO and the US for protection, the bloc has the Strategic Compass, which calls for the creation of a rapid reaction force of 5,000 personnel by 2025.

The organization has also presented its proposals for implementing the EU Climate Law－the so-called Fit-for-55 package－to help realize the goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent by 2030.

Tian Dewen, deputy director of the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that seeking integration within, and strategic autonomy externally, are urgent issues for development of the EU, but it remains difficult for it to realize both these goals.

Despite most European officials agreeing that the EU needs to address many challenges, achieving a consensus on policies has been difficult for the 27-member bloc, as each country has its domestic priorities, Tian said.

For instance, a report released by the European Defence Agency last month said spending on defense by EU countries, excluding Denmark, accounted for 1.5 percent of their combined GDP in 2020. Nineteen of the nations increased their defense expenditure year-on-year, while joint investment in defense projects within the EU fell.

Moreover, Zheng Chunrong, head of the Germany Research Institute at Tongji University in Shanghai, said Germany and France, the two "engines" for the EU's future, both face uncertainties domestically, which might affect the EU's development.

"The leading roles played by Germany and France in the EU have waned in recent years due to their growing domestic constraints as well as the declining willingness among other EU members to follow them," Zheng said.

He added that Germany has just formed its first three-party coalition government after former chancellor Angela Merkel ended her 16 years in office. The new government will inevitably need to spend more time and energy coordinating positions and balancing interests among the ruling parties, so Chancellor Olaf Scholz might not have as strong a say as Merkel, and would be more prudent on pushing forward EU projects, Zheng said.

Biscop said the impact of Merkel's retirement should not be overestimated, as "the fate of the EU never depends on one person, however meritorious, but on the interplay between member states' governments and the leadership of the EU institutions".

"In that sense, relations between the next French president and Chancellor Scholz will indeed be of prime importance," he said.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been ambitious over EU integration and strategic autonomy, faces a presidential election in April, the first challenge for him this year, Djordjevic said.

Another challenge for Macron is that France took over the EU presidency for six months from Jan 1, which will show if the country wants to impose its own vision of strategic autonomy. That vision will certainly be reflected in the Strategic Compass on defense and foreign policy, which is expected to be adopted by the EU in March, Djordjevic added.

He said the situation in Germany should also be considered as Scholz takes on the difficult role of succeeding Merkel.

"Given the role which Germany has within the EU, Scholz's achievements at international level, with the aim of maintaining a balanced diplomatic approach to world powers, will be of great importance both at national and supranational level," he said.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has put forward the vision of strengthening Europe together in 2022 and has submitted specific targets for promoting the EU's economic recovery, green development, digitalization, and strengthening its global influence.

Zheng said the extent to which these goals can be achieved depends on whether Germany and France make concerted efforts and obtain support from other member countries.

"However, with the current internal and external constraints, the EU reform agenda can only be carried out by taking small steps," he added.

Ma Xiaolin, director of Zhejiang International Studies University's Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim, said EU cohesion is not as strong as previously, and the organization faces many challenges. Europe, in general, is at a crossroads, with racism, Euroskepticism and extreme nationalism on the rise.

"The European integration process appears to be stagnant and the EU's future remains to be seen. Moreover, Europe wants to reduce reliance on and influence from the US in various sectors－including economy and defense, but it is hard to say whether the organization can realize that goal," Ma said.

This article is reprinted from China Daily.

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